WHAT’S THE POINT OF OPPOSING SCHEDULE STRENGTH…
IF YOU LOSE TO THE WEAKER TEAMS?
THE DODGERS OUTFIELD DILEMMA
The Dodgers’ remaining opponents have a .466 winning percentage. That’s the second lowest in all of baseball (we’ll get to the lowest in a moment). That ranking is due to the fact that remaining on their dance card are the Giants, Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and six more games against the Rockies.
LA lost to Colorado last night, 4-3. The Rox had lost 10 straight to the Dodgers before this one. It was not the walkoff single by Warming Bernabel (note to Mark Bittman, please create a winter desert called the “Warming Bernabel”) that beat the Dodgers; it was the one-out misplay by right fielder Teoscar Hernandez on the play before that did them in. Take a look, and I’ll continue on the other side.
According to Statcast, the catch probability on that fly ball was 99.4%. Phrase another way, there was about a half-percent chance that that ball would drop for a hit.
This is not the first time that Teoscar’s fielding has hurt the Dodgers. It wasn’t even the first time in this game. According to various metrics, the three worst outfielders in the NL are Hernandez, Juan Soto, and, at the bottom, Nick Castellanos. All three play for teams heading to the postseason.
The Dodgers have a corner outfield problem. Their left fielder is Michael Conforto, who is the second-worst fielding left fielder according to Fangraphs, and he is hitting .190, spending the season below the Mendoza line. Howard Cole phrased it perfectly, “Teoscar is to right field what Conforto is to hitting.”
How did the Dodgers, a team that spent so much money, get into an outfield situation like this? There is a two-word answer: Shohei Ohtani.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Ohtani. I think he is the greatest player in the game today. But he is a full-time Designated Hitter, and that is a position that I believe requires flexibility and fluidity. You must be able to situationally move your players into that role as the circumstances present themselves. And as many different positions and roles that Dodgers players play, Ohtani is a fixture at DH. That means, at least as of this morning, Teoscar Hernandez is their right fielder, Michael Conforto is the Dodgers’ left fielder, and their shortstop is Mookie Betts, who is proving to be great wherever he plays, but he is a Gold Glove in right field.
After the game, Betts met with manager Dave Roberts and Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, in Roberts’ office. I wasn’t invited.
THE PADRES HITTING DILEMMA
The team with the easiest remaining schedule is the San Diego Padres, who were swept over the weekend by the Dodgers and lost last night to the Giants (who are not a good team), 4-3.
The Padres have a remaining schedule against opponents with a .464 winning percentage. That includes the Rockies, White Sox, Twins, Orioles, Diamondbacks, and three more with the Giants. They have a great bullpen, but they need a lead for those guys to protect.
This season, the Padres are hitting .232, the lowest BA in the NL. They are slugging .383, 25th in the majors. They have hit 106 homers, better than only the Pirates, who have hit 88. When they have trailed in a game, which they have 86 times this season, they have come back to win just 30 of those games. That’s a .349 winning percentage. Granted, that’s above the MLB average of .304, but when you look at the top three teams in the comeback to win category: the Blue Jays (.424), the Dodgers (.419), and the Brewers (.416), you can see the importance of potent bats.
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